| Return of Malthusian Doctrine? |
| Monday, 16 November 2009 16:10 | |||
 Boston, Massachusetts, November 2009 – Modern agriculture accounts for 86% of the world's water consumption. But in regions where crops and livestock are actually cultivated, the rate of consumption often outstrips what local water sources can provide. Left unchecked, today's agricultural practices and policies could be sowing the seeds for a global food shortage by 2050, according to a new report by Lux Research.
The report, titled "Malthus Returns: Solving the Unsustainable Agricultural Water Demand Conundrum," projects the impact of 1) an increasing global population, 2) growing consumption of meat and other animal products, and 3) continued support for biofuels based on corn, sugar and soy. It finds that without changes in technology, the world will require 4,986 cubic kilometers (km3) of water for agriculture in 2050 -- up from just 2,844 km3 today, and far greater than sustainable resources in the regions where people live and grow food. However, it also examines technological water reduction strategies that can bring agriculture water demand in line with renewable supplies. "Dropping water tables are already posing problems for farmers from the U.S. prairies, to India and China, and today's troubles could grow far worse," said Michael LoCascio, a senior analyst at Lux Research, lead author of the report. "Fortunately the technological means to begin closing the water supply-demand gap already exist, and many of them may actually be profitable for farmers to implement." The report suggests the only option left for agriculture is to find ways to increase water efficiency. These include utilizing drip and smart irrigation to reduce consumption, and optimal use of fertilizer and pesticides, plastic mulches and more efficient food distribution can also help minimize water use. For biofuels, even with a major shirt to lower-water feedstocks like celluosic and algae biomass, growth could tip the scales to unsustainability, even with adoption of water-saving agricultural technologies. As a result, for biofuels to boom, the shift away from current feedstocks – such as corn, sugar, and soy – will have to be even more thorough than now projected. Lux Research provides strategic advice and on-going intelligence for emerging technologies. Leaders in business, finance and government rely on us to help them make informed strategic decisions. Through our unique research approach focused on primary research and our extensive global network, we deliver insight, connections and competitive advantage to our clients. Visit www.luxresearchinc.com for more information. SOURCE: Lux Research
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